Quantifying ecosystem integrity under climate change using meta-analysis

Camille Parmesan, University of Texas at Austin

Abstract

Project objectives:

1. To conduct quantitative syntheses of biotic responses to climate change contributing to alterations in the structure, function and distributions of terrestrial ecosystems in the USA.
2. To use results to provide parameter estimates on dispersal rates to reduce uncertainty in modeling projected biotic responses under climate change.
3. To use results to identify key climate parameters most highly associated with responses of species, taxonomic and functional groups, and run downscaled GCMs to provide projections for those specific climatic parameters most closely linked to species’ responses.

Questions addressed:

1. To what extent is geographic variation in responses of species and communities due to differences in (a) biotic or abiotic characteristics of the local communities, (b) degree and nature of climate change?
2. Are some taxonomic or functional groups more sensitive than, and how might such differences affect ecosystem coherence under future climate change?
3. To what extent are ecosystems within the USA responding as a unit, and to what extent are intact ecosystems becoming disrupted due to idiosyncratic responses of component species, communities and functional groups in ecosystems?

Data will be compiled from studies conducted within the terrestrial USA. Databasing, analyses and writing will conducted at the University of Texas.

Proposed research entails extraction of USA data on observed changes in species’ phenologies, abundances or distributions from published literature, and analyses of relationships of changes to regional climate change. Results from the meta-analyses will be used to refine climate projection so they are tailored to key biological parameters (with Dr. Yang) and as input for bioclimatic models of projected changes in distribution for target species and systems (with Dr. Sarkar).

Expected accomplishments and deliverables:

1. Results will be published in scientific journals and presented at scientific meetings, as well as to governmental and non-governmental agencies.
2. Results will provide improved parameters for input into biological projections under future climate scenarios.
3. Results will provide specific parameters tailored to those that best represent key climatic metrics for biological systems, with an emphasis on extreme events. These biologically-tailored climate parameters will then be the focal output for a new downscaled GCM able to run at a daily resolution.
4. Comparison of results from the daily climate models with those of monthly mean models will inform climate scientist on the added value (if any) of conducting climate projections at finer temporal resolutions (e.g. with climate metrics based on daily rather than monthly data).
5. Placement of data extracted from the literature on observed distribution changes across terrestrial USA into an accesible database.